A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
